China is undoubtedly facing dramatic changes in the global arena. The United States is increasingly mobilising resources and alliances in the Indo-Pacific region and strengthening strategic competition to combat what it sees as a ‘rising China threat’. The Biden administration has deviated from or abandoned almost all of its predecessor’s policies, except for its China policy. Trump-era tariffs and export controls on Chinese imports continue and the legacy of Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy endures through elevation of the Quad and the formation of the AUKUS security arrangement to combat China’s influence. Chinese policymakers recognise these measures as challenges in China’s external environment, stability in which is of utmost importance to the development of the Chinese economy.
中国在全球舞台上无疑正面临着巨大的变化。美国正不断调动印太地区的资源和联盟安排，并通过加强战略竞争以对抗其认知中“不断上升的中国威胁”。拜登政府偏离或摒弃了几乎所有前任政府的政策轨道，但对华政策除外：特朗普时期对中国进口商品的关税征收和出口管制并未停止，印太战略的遗产通过升级四国机制（QUAD）和组建三边安全伙伴关系（AUKUS）以对抗中国的影响而得以延续。（中国的）政策制定者认为，这些是对本国外部环境和稳定的挑战，而这对中国经济的发展至关重要。
However, China remains optimistic and believes in the prevailing strength of common interests with its trade and investment partners. China maintains that US-led decoupling will not only damage the interests of the United States and its allies, but also violates basic economic rules that govern international trade and investment. While political and security considerations certainly affect patterns of global production and trade, they will not change the forces driving economic globalisation—the pursuit of comparative advantage. Based on these beliefs China is continuing to uphold free trade principles.
然而，中国仍然乐观，并相信与经贸投资伙伴间共同利益蕴含的压倒性力量。中国坚持认为，美国主导的脱钩不仅会损害美国自身及其盟友的利益，还会违反国际贸易和投资的基本经济规则。虽然政治和安全考量必然会影响全球的生产和贸易模式，但无法改变推动经济全球化的力量，即对比较优势的追求。基于上述信念，中国将继续坚持自由贸易原则。
The Chinese economy is deeply integrated into the world economy through participation in global production chains. Although its trade-to-GDP ratio has declined from a peak of 64.2 per cent in 2006 to 31.4 per cent in 2020, it remains one of the highest among major economies in the world. China clings to the view that maintaining stable economic growth and development with reforms and opening measures will benefit both itself and its trade and investment partners. That is why China has actively promoted the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership arrangement and is keen on entering more free trade negotiations.
通过参与全球生产链，中国经济已深度融入世界经济当中。尽管中国对外贸易占国民生产总值（GDP）比例已从2006年的峰值64.2%下降到2020年的31.4%，但仍是主要经济体中这一比例最高的国家之一。中国坚持认为，通过改革开放保持经济稳定增长和发展，有利于自身和贸易投资伙伴。这就是为什么中国积极推动区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP）机制，并谋求加入更多的自贸谈判当中。
Many developed countries have criticised China for its unfair trade practices and for its relatively closed domestic market. This criticism is not all groundless. The Chinese market economy is still immature in terms of legal and regulatory infrastructure and economic development also remains low compared to advanced Western market economies, which have evolved for more than a century.
许多发达国家批评中国贸易做法不公平，国内市场相对封闭。这些批评并非空穴来风：中国市场经济在法律和监管基础设施方面不够成熟，经济发展水平与西方发达经济体相比仍显不足。
But as the Chinese economy enters a more developed phase after a period of very high growth, it is now more confident about upgrading its domestic law and regulations to better suit the requirements of trade and investment in the 21st century. By further opening the Chinese market, China may also offset US pressure and help to maintain a stable external environment for economic development in the coming decade.
但随着中国经济在经历一段快速增长时期后迈入高质量发展阶段，如今中国更有信心“升级”国内法律法规，以更好适应21世纪的贸易和投资要求。通过进一步开放本国市场，中国也可能借此化解来自美国的压力，这有助于为未来十年的经济发展保持外部环境稳定。
The Chinese government is certainly making efforts to do so. The annual China International Import Expo, launched in 2018, showcases policy intentions of further opening the domestic market and a repudiation of mercantilist trade policies. The 2019 Foreign Investment Law also grants foreign investors comprehensive national treatment. Since 2013, China has established new free trade zones—notably in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hainan—to test a more open economic system. In many of these zones, trade-related domestic regulations have been simplified or abolished and average tariff levels have been lowered to facilitate trade liberalisation.
毫无疑问，中国政府正为此而努力。2018年开始举行的年度中国国际进口博览会，向世界展现了进一步开放国内市场和否定重商主义贸易政策的政策意图。2019年的《外商投资法》也给予了外国投资者全面的国民待遇。2013年以来，中国在上海、深圳、海南等多地建立了新的自由贸易区，通过实验为一个更加开放的经济体系积累经验。在这些省市的许多地区，贸易有关的国内法规被简化或废止，平均关税水平得到降低以促进贸易自由化。
China’s application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership is an important move in this direction. Many external observers understand this decision as one component of China’s policy to offset US geopolitical pressures. But from an economic standpoint, it is actually a logical decision to upgrade the Chinese market system, with a rationale akin to China’s entry into the WTO in the late 1990s.
中国申请加入全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（CPTPP）同样是这一方向上的重要举措。许多外部观察人士将该决定视为中国抵消美国地缘政治压力的政策组成之一。但从经济角度看，（借此）升级中国的市场体系实际上是合乎经济逻辑的，其理由与中国在上世纪90年代末加入世贸组织类似。
Despite geopolitical competition, China still aspires to use its economic advancements by seeking opportunities to expand and enhance trade and investment relations. Take for example, the US Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which aims to formulate a set of standards for key industries, including supply chain resilience, digital economies, export control and environmental protection. While most countries in the region welcome US leadership in economic development, what they seek most is greater market access and the facilitation of trade. With this important element lacking, it will not be easy to decouple China from the global supply chain.
尽管面临地缘政治竞争，中国仍然渴望运用其经济发展成果来寻求扩大并强化经贸投资关系的机遇。以美国的印太经济框架（IPEF）为例，它旨在为关键行业，包括供应链弹性、数字经济、出口管制和环境保护等制定一套标准。虽然该地区的大多数国家都欢迎美国在经济发展方面的领导地位，但他们最需要的是进一步的市场准入让步和促贸措施。由于缺乏这一重要因素，（印太经济框架）难以将中国与全球供应链相脱钩。
With Western media coverage dominated by the hot topic of geopolitical competition, China’s measures in recent years to further open its service sector and financial market have generally gone unnoticed. Where economic reform was once not feasible—for fear of speculative shocks triggering a financial crisis and social instability—China now has a maturing economy that is increasingly suited to opening historically closed industries and will be made stronger by marketoriented regulations.
随着地缘政治竞争话题主导了西方媒体的对华报道，中国近年来进一步开放服务业和金融市场的举措却往往被他们所忽略。随着中国经济的日渐发展和成熟，那些曾出于担心投机冲击引发金融危机和社会不稳定，因而改革一度不可行的行业如今得以实施（改革），并将因市场导向的监管而变得更加强劲。
Contrary to some speculation, the next decade will not see China’s trade policy revert back to closed-market principles, as increasing openness is imperative for both the Chinese and global economy.
与一些猜测相反，在未来十年中国的贸易政策不会退回封闭型市场的轨道，因为（恰恰相反）提高开放水平对于中国和全球经济都势在必行。
来源：EAST AISA FORUM